The Country Has Lost Its Ability to Critically Think and Debate

20 JUN 2026.

For years we have been told that the world is becoming more chaotic and unpredictable. Wars erupt unexpectedly, markets swing wildly, technology advances at breathtaking speed and politics seems more fragmented than ever. Yet a growing number of experts argue that the opposite may actually be true: thanks to artificial intelligence and massive data sets, the world may be becoming more predictable.

The clearest example is weather forecasting. Despite the complications of climate change, today’s AI-powered seven-day forecasts are roughly as accurate as three-day forecasts were in 1980. Better sensors, more computing power and enormous amounts of data have transformed prediction. The obvious question is whether the same methods can predict human behavior, geopolitics and economic events.

According to Anthony Vinci, a former U.S. intelligence officer and author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution, AI has become a revolutionary forecasting tool. He argues there are four primary ways to predict the future: expert human forecasters, institutional intelligence organizations such as the CIA, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, and AI systems capable of integrating all three. Vinci admits he increasingly trusts AI-assisted forecasts more than his own intuition.

His company, Vico Technologies, combines generative AI models with human oversight to forecast future events and assess their second- and third-order consequences. One notable success was Vico’s prediction of a U.S. strike on Iran. By mid-February, the system assigned an 89 percent chance of an attack occurring before the end of March, significantly higher than prediction markets. The strike occurred on February 28.

But there are dangers. AI systems depend on data, and data can be manipulated. Powerful interests may deliberately “groom” large language models by flooding the internet with misleading information designed to influence AI outputs. Another threat is synthetic data, information generated by AI itself. In extreme cases, models may begin feeding on their own outputs, a phenomenon researchers call Model Autophagy Disorder, or MAD, potentially degrading performance over time.

Oxford philosopher Carissa Véliz warns that predictions are never neutral because data itself is a human creation. Every model reflects choices about what information to collect and what to ignore. As she puts it, the map is not the territory.

Prediction markets face their own vulnerabilities. Traders can attempt to manipulate outcomes or pressure journalists whose reporting affects bets. AI systems may avoid some of these problems, but their long-term reliability remains unproven.

The future of forecasting may belong neither to humans nor machines alone, but to a partnership between the two. The challenge will be maintaining accuracy in a world where technology, politics and information are evolving faster than ever. As Vinci notes, borrowing from Lewis Carroll’s Red Queen, sometimes it takes all the running you can do just to stay in the same place.

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Asleep at the Wheel celebrated its 25th anniversary with a joyous performance on Austin City Limits in 1995. Led by Ray Benson, the band delivered its trademark blend of Western swing, country, jazz and boogie, revisiting classics and showcasing the musicianship that made it one of America’s most beloved roots acts. The concert remains a fan favorite and a testament to their enduring legacy.

Asleep At The Wheel 25th Anniversary Austin City Limits 1995

Uploaded by Gavin Wilson on 2025-02-21.