27 OCT 2026.
A new election forecasting project from Harvard political scientist Gary King and his colleagues is raising serious questions about Republican prospects in the November 3 midterm elections. The project, called ElectIt, uses election results dating back to 1946, incumbency advantages, candidate performance, polling trends and historical voting patterns to estimate what could happen in the House and Senate.
The numbers deserve attention. The model projects Democrats receiving approximately 54.1 percent of the national two-party House vote. Under one scenario in which the polls prove largely accurate, Democrats emerge with approximately 239 House seats and 52 Senate seats. That would represent a substantial shift in congressional power during President Trump’s second term.
But there is another side to this analysis. The researchers explicitly acknowledge that polling errors can dramatically alter the outcome. Their model assigns approximately a 7 percent probability to Republicans retaining the House. In that scenario, Democrats would finish with approximately 213 seats while Republicans would maintain control of both chambers.
What makes this especially interesting is the historical record. Polling organizations have misjudged voter behavior before. Turnout assumptions can fail. Certain voters may be inadequately represented. And national polling advantages do not automatically translate into victories in individual congressional districts.
The model also incorporates the historical tendency of the president’s party to lose congressional seats during midterm elections.
So the question is not whether Harvard has discovered the future. It has not. The question is whether its statistical assumptions will survive contact with actual voters.
On November 3, Americans will provide the only election forecast that ultimately counts. Their votes.
ElectIt: forecasts for all US House and Senate seats in the 11/3/2026 election
By Danny Ebanks, Jonathan N. Katz, and Gary King. We make these forecasts (including all data, methods, and procedures) public because academics learn by making themselves vulnerable to being proven wrong.
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There is something genuinely extraordinary about this intimate 2021 Newport Folk Festival performance of “Prodigal Daughter” by Aoife O’Donovan and Allison Russell. Filmed backstage, it captures two remarkable voices blending with breathtaking delicacy and emotional honesty. Written by O’Donovan and Tim O’Brien, the song reimagines the biblical parable through a daughter’s return and the complicated bonds between generations. There is no theatrical excess, no elaborate production and no need for either. Just magnificent musicianship, exquisite harmonies and a haunting reminder of what happens when extraordinary artists allow a beautiful song to speak for itself. Absolutely mesmerizing.
Newport Sessions: Aoife O’Donovan & Allison Russell, “Prodigal Daughter” Live from Newport Folk 2021
“Prodigal Daughter” (featuring Allison Russell) is a 2x Grammy nominated song from Aoife O’Donovan’s album – Age of Apathy – out now on Yep Roc Records.
Charles Bronson a hundred and four year old!!